Piv txwv: kev faib twv Bond

Txoj kev npaj

Ntawm lub rooj Europe: $140 rau 19–36, $50 rau twv ob kabkev twvTwv ob kabRau tus lej hauv ob kab sib ze, them 5:1. Lus Fabkis: sixain.Nyeem tag nrho → 13–18, $10 rau xoomlub logXoomTib lub qhov ntsuab uas tsis muaj kev twv them sib npaug, pawg kaum ob los yog kab ntsug twg npog; yog qhov uas feem tsev twv txiaj los ntawm. Kuj hu ua: ib lub xoom, 0.Nyeem tag nrho →. Npog nees nkaum tsib tus lej. Ib tus lej siab them $140 thiab poob $60: +$80. Ib tus lej twv ob kab them $250 thiab poob $150: +$100. Xoom them $350 thiab poob $190: +$160. Tus twg ntawm 1–12 poob tag nrho: −$200. Nqi xav tias yuav taulejNqi xav tias yuav tauQhov tshwm sim nruab nrab ntawm ib qho kev twv thaum mus ntev. −1/37 ntawm cov nyiaj twv rau txhua qhov kev twv Europe ib txwm.Nyeem tag nrho → ib zaus kiv yog (18×80 + 6×100 + 160 − 12×200)/37 = −$5.41, uas yog 2.70% ntawm $200. Kev faib twv no yog twv tib yam nyiaj hnav khaub ncaws.

Tswv yim twv tib yam nyiaj hauv roulette

Zaus kiv 1–10

19 27 7 33 15 0 23 31 11 29. Rau zaug siab, ib zaug twv ob kab, ib zaug xoom, ob zaug poob: +480 +100 +160 −400 = +$340. Nyiaj seem +$340 tom qab kaum zaus kiv, nrog ob zaus kiv poob uas txhua zaus noj $200. Tus xoom ntawm zaus kiv 6 them $160, uas yog tib zaug uas xoom hnov zoo li ib tug phooj ywg.

Zaus kiv 11–20

5 22 36 14 20 2 28 34 17 25. Ob zaug poob hauv rau zaus kiv thawj rub nyiaj seem rov qab mus rau +$280; ces peb zaug siab thiab ib zaug twv ob kab kaw zaug ua si ntawm +$620. Nees nkaum zaus kiv: 12 zaug siab, 3 zaug twv ob kab tawm, 1 zaug xoom, 4 zaug poob. Tag nrho xav tias yuav muaj yog −$108; tiag tiag +$620, kwv yees li 1.2 qhov sib txawv txheemlejQhov sib txawv txheemCag plaub fab ntawm kev hloov pauv (variance); qhov deb ib txwm ntawm ib qhov tshwm sim ntawm tus nqi xav tias yuav tau.Nyeem tag nrho → siab dua qhov xav tias yuav muaj, ib hmo zoo.

Kev suav nyiaj

Tag nrho twv $4,000 hauv nees nkaum zaus kiv. Nyiaj yuav poob raws nruab nrablejNyiaj yuav poob raws nruab nrabNqi xav tias yuav tau muab sib npaug rau tag nrho cov nyiaj twv; cov nyiaj nruab nrab uas poob hauv ib zaug ua si lossis ib lub sij hawm.Nyeem tag nrho → $108. Qhov sib txawv txheem ntawm ib zaus kiv yog kwv yees li $135, yog li nees nkaum zaus kiv muaj qhov sib txawv txheem kwv yees li $605; +$620 lossis zoo dua yog ib hmo hauv cuaj hmo. Tib nees nkaum zaus kiv ntawm $200 twv tib yam rau liabkev twvLiabKev twv them sib npaug rau 18 tus lej liab. Lus Fabkis: rouge.Nyeem tag nrho → yuav muaj tib qhov xav tias yuav muaj thiab kev faib tawm dav dua (σ ≈ $200 ib zaus kiv): kev faib twv no muaj kev hloov pauvlejKev hloov pauv (variance)Ib qho kev ntsuas tias cov qhov tshwm sim tawg dav npaum li cas ncig tus nqi xav tias yuav tau. Siab rau twv ib tus lej, qis rau kev twv them sib npaug.Nyeem tag nrho → qis dua ib qho kev twv them sib npaugkev twvKev twv them sib npaugLiab/dub, khib/txawm, siab/qis. 18 tus lej, them 1:1.Nyeem tag nrho → vim nws yeej ntau zaus dua thiab me dua.

Zaug ua si no qhia dab tsi

Kev faib twv Bond yog peb qhov twv uas lawv cov nqi xav tias yuav tau ntxiv ua ke tau −1/37 ntawm tag nrho, ib yam li txhua qhov kev sib xyaw ntawm cov kev twv li qub. Nws yam tiag yog kev npog: yeej 67.6% ua rau ib hmo hnov zoo li ib txheej txheem. 32.4% ntawm cov zaus kiv uas poob noj $200 txhua zaus, thiab mus ntev lawv noj raws nkaus li lej hais. Txawm yog lub npe li ntawd, nws tsis nyob hauv Fleming cov ntawv dab neeg: nws tus Bond twv ob pawg kaum obkev twvPawg kaum ob1–12, 13–24 lossis 25–36, them 2:1.Nyeem tag nrho →. Cov ntawv me qhia tswv yim ua tas.

Roulette hauv cov ntaub ntawv sauTswv yim pawg kaum ob thiab kab ntsug hauv roulette

Cov lus nug